Tomorrow night will see the world's two best male tennis players go head to head in the final of the US Open for the third time in four years.
Serbia's Novak Djokovic will take on Spain's Rafael Nadal in New York just like I predicted two weeks ago here: (http://www.ewansworldofsport.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/can-andy-murray-retain-his-us-open-crown.html) and it promises to be a sensational encounter once again. As you will see from the above blog, I tipped Djokovic to win the title two weeks ago and despite some doubts I'm going to stand by that statement.
There can be no doubting Rafael Nadal is in the better form and has had the easier route to the final. He is unbeaten on hard courts this season winning three Masters Titles in Indian Wells in March and Montreal and Cincinnati last month.
Those latter two victories were all the more remarkable considering how many people had written him off (including to some extent me) after his defeat in the first round of Wimbledon to unheralded Belgian Steve Darcis.
Nadal has looked firmly back to his best on the courts of Flushing Meadows and has only dropped one set on his way to his third US Open final. In the quarter finals he thumped countryman Tommy Robredo (who had beaten Roger Federer in the previous round) for the loss of only four games before defeating Richard Gasquet with ease in last night's semi-final.
By contrast, Novak Djokovic was pushed to the limit yesterday by Andy Murray's conqueror Stanislas Wawrinka in his semi-final. After over four hours of play, Djokovic finally emerged the winner, 6-4 in the fifth set. You have to wonder how much that has taken out of the world number one, even if he has proved time and again he is a machine.
However, I think being tested like that is an advantage for Djokovic. Andy Murray can bare testament to this when he won Wimbledon in the summer. He may have put himself and millions of fans through the ringer in his quarter final against Fernando Verdasco when he had to come from two sets down to win, but this served him enormously in the long run.
And that's what Djokovic will be telling himself. He was far from his best yesterday and probably deserved to lose against Wawrinka, but he dug deep and is now in the final. He'll be brimming with confidence and keen to cement his position as World Number One over a rampant Nadal.
Another advantage Djokovic has in my eyes is his incredible level of consistency in Grand Slams. This is his third slam final of this year alone and fourth consecutive US Open final. Contrast that to Nadal, who thanks to injuries hasn't been to a slam final outwith his beloved French Open since that epic 2012 Australian Open final against Djokovic. That gives the Serbian the mental edge in my view, despite Nadal's 13 slam titles.
Furthermore, Djokovic will be spurred on by a couple of revenge factors. First of all, he'll want to regain the US Open crown he lost last year to Andy Murray in such dramatic fashion. He's loved the US Open since he arrived on the tennis world and this tournament was the first slam in which Djokovic reached the final of in 2007.
He'll also want to avenge another dramatic defeat from the last 12 months and this time it occurred against Nadal in the semi-finals of this years French Open. In five gruelling sets, it was the Spaniard who won 9-7 in the decider after Djokovic had been a break-up. That was a sore one for Djokovic who was keen to complete a career Grand Slam at Roland Garros in June.
And what about Nadal's knees? He might look fitter and sharper than ever, but as pointed out earlier, they haven't been giving a true test yet this fortnight in the Big Apple. Tests don't come much tougher than a best of five-set match against Djokovic and he'll be looking to put the Majorican under serious pressure from the word go. If it goes to another five hour match between the pair, then I've got to fancy Djokovic's chances.
I could easily have stated a case for Nadal winning tomorrow evening, but I fancy the World Number one from Serbia to win his seventh Grand Slam title and edge out Nadal in a five-set thriller.
Sunday, 8 September 2013
Sunday, 25 August 2013
Can Andy Murray retain his US Open crown?
After the euphoria of his incredible Wimbledon triumph last month, you could be forgiven for forgetting Andy Murray actually won his first grand slam title almost 12 months ago on the courts of Flushing Meadows as he won the US Open.
That Monday night, September 10th 2012 will live long in the memory for anyone who watched Murray's historic five-set win over Novak Djokovic. It represented the culmination of years of struggle for Murray coming to an end as he won his first major title at the fifth time of asking.
Now, after winning Wimbledon to collect a second slam title, Murray can really stamp his authority on the tennis world by defending his US Open crown. However, that will be easier said than done.
The draw hasn't been the kindest to the man from Dunblane, but as we know now you write off Murray at your peril these days in Grand Slams.
Here is Murray's potential route to glory in New York:
Round 1- Michael Llodra (World Ranking-49)
The 33 year-old Frenchman shouldn't pose too many problems for Murray as he kicks off his campaign. Llodra is more of a doubles specialist these days and has had a decidedly mixed 2013 so far winning 12 out of 22 matches.
However, he did reach the semi finals of the Paris Masters last year defeating Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner along the way. But with Murray thumping him last year in straight sets in the Australian Open, he should do so again.
Round 2- Victor Hanescu (World Ranking- 54)
The Romanian should again be taken care of with relative ease by Murray. Like Llodra, he is now in his 30s and never poses any real threat to the top players.
Furthermore he has never been beyond the second round at the US Open, so if Murray is on-song he should get through to the last 32 without too much fuss.
Round 3- Juan Monaco (World Ranking- 32)
The Daily Mail's guide on Friday dismissed Monaco as a journeyman but I think this won't be the easiest tie for Murray. He's is still an obvious clear favourite to beat the Argentinian, but Monaco was ranked as high as 10th in the world just over a year ago and has twice reached the 4th round of this tournament in 2007 and 2011. Murray should win in straight sets, but I wouldn't be surprises if this goes to 4 sets.
Round 4- Nicolas Almagro (World Ranking- 15)
The World Number 15 from Spain should await Murray in Round 4. It won't be all plain sailing for Murray against a consistent performer, but there can be no doubting Almagro is more of a clay-court specialist having reached the French Open quarter finals three times, including in 2008 when he beat Murray.
However, over the last few years Murray has become accustomed to starting the second week of grand slams in top fashion and I'd expect him to have few issues against Almagro.
Quarter Final- Tomas Berdych (World Ranking- 5)
This is where things start to get a whole lot trickier for Murray. I'm rather worried about this potential match-up as Berdych is a real bogeyman for the Wimbledon hero. He beat him comfortably in Cincinnati just over two weeks ago and has won six out of their ten meetings.
His forehand and big serve seem to really trouble Murray, but the Scot can take comfort in the fact that one of his wins came in last years US Open semi-final.
Berdych can be described as erratic, and Murray has much more big game experience than him. I'd tip Murray to win in five sets if this match-up occurs.
Semi-Final- Novak Djokovic (World Ranking- 1)
What a mouthwatering prospect this is but Murray would have preferred this to come in the final I would suspect. Murray will clearly have to be at his best to beat Djokovic but comes into this knowing that he beat him here last year and the Wimbledon final this year. The two of them have developed a fantastic rivalry and it really is a match that could be decided on the toss of a coin.
If Murray gets his strategy bang on like he did at Wimbledon he will secure a place in the final. But Djokovic is such a machine, that you fancy him to be raring to atone for that Wimbledon loss.
Final- Rafael Nadal- (World Ranking- 2)
If Murray makes his second consecutive US Open final, it is likely he will have to beat the Spaniard who you can never write off. I will happily admit that I thought he was going to struggle again after his shock first-round loss at Wimbledon but he has been in brilliant form in the hard-court summer season so far winning the Montreal and Cincinnati Masters titles.
He would have to get by Roger Federer in a potentially brilliant quarter-final, but I'd fancy the in-form Spaniard to get past the ageing Swiss man.
Murray has a poor record against Nadal, only winning five of their 18 matches, but the better news for Murray is that those wins have all come on hard courts. And he did beat Nadal on his way to the 2008 US Open final and if this final did occur, you have to wonder about Nadal's knees after two brutal weeks on this surface.
Prediction: Murray to fall just short after a five-set epic semi-final with Djokovic, who will go onto beat Nadal in the final in two weeks.
Obviously I hope I'm wrong in that prediction.
That Monday night, September 10th 2012 will live long in the memory for anyone who watched Murray's historic five-set win over Novak Djokovic. It represented the culmination of years of struggle for Murray coming to an end as he won his first major title at the fifth time of asking.
Now, after winning Wimbledon to collect a second slam title, Murray can really stamp his authority on the tennis world by defending his US Open crown. However, that will be easier said than done.
The draw hasn't been the kindest to the man from Dunblane, but as we know now you write off Murray at your peril these days in Grand Slams.
Here is Murray's potential route to glory in New York:
Round 1- Michael Llodra (World Ranking-49)
The 33 year-old Frenchman shouldn't pose too many problems for Murray as he kicks off his campaign. Llodra is more of a doubles specialist these days and has had a decidedly mixed 2013 so far winning 12 out of 22 matches.
However, he did reach the semi finals of the Paris Masters last year defeating Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner along the way. But with Murray thumping him last year in straight sets in the Australian Open, he should do so again.
Round 2- Victor Hanescu (World Ranking- 54)
The Romanian should again be taken care of with relative ease by Murray. Like Llodra, he is now in his 30s and never poses any real threat to the top players.
Furthermore he has never been beyond the second round at the US Open, so if Murray is on-song he should get through to the last 32 without too much fuss.
Round 3- Juan Monaco (World Ranking- 32)
The Daily Mail's guide on Friday dismissed Monaco as a journeyman but I think this won't be the easiest tie for Murray. He's is still an obvious clear favourite to beat the Argentinian, but Monaco was ranked as high as 10th in the world just over a year ago and has twice reached the 4th round of this tournament in 2007 and 2011. Murray should win in straight sets, but I wouldn't be surprises if this goes to 4 sets.
Round 4- Nicolas Almagro (World Ranking- 15)
The World Number 15 from Spain should await Murray in Round 4. It won't be all plain sailing for Murray against a consistent performer, but there can be no doubting Almagro is more of a clay-court specialist having reached the French Open quarter finals three times, including in 2008 when he beat Murray.
However, over the last few years Murray has become accustomed to starting the second week of grand slams in top fashion and I'd expect him to have few issues against Almagro.
Quarter Final- Tomas Berdych (World Ranking- 5)
This is where things start to get a whole lot trickier for Murray. I'm rather worried about this potential match-up as Berdych is a real bogeyman for the Wimbledon hero. He beat him comfortably in Cincinnati just over two weeks ago and has won six out of their ten meetings.
His forehand and big serve seem to really trouble Murray, but the Scot can take comfort in the fact that one of his wins came in last years US Open semi-final.
Berdych can be described as erratic, and Murray has much more big game experience than him. I'd tip Murray to win in five sets if this match-up occurs.
Semi-Final- Novak Djokovic (World Ranking- 1)
What a mouthwatering prospect this is but Murray would have preferred this to come in the final I would suspect. Murray will clearly have to be at his best to beat Djokovic but comes into this knowing that he beat him here last year and the Wimbledon final this year. The two of them have developed a fantastic rivalry and it really is a match that could be decided on the toss of a coin.
If Murray gets his strategy bang on like he did at Wimbledon he will secure a place in the final. But Djokovic is such a machine, that you fancy him to be raring to atone for that Wimbledon loss.
Final- Rafael Nadal- (World Ranking- 2)
If Murray makes his second consecutive US Open final, it is likely he will have to beat the Spaniard who you can never write off. I will happily admit that I thought he was going to struggle again after his shock first-round loss at Wimbledon but he has been in brilliant form in the hard-court summer season so far winning the Montreal and Cincinnati Masters titles.
He would have to get by Roger Federer in a potentially brilliant quarter-final, but I'd fancy the in-form Spaniard to get past the ageing Swiss man.
Murray has a poor record against Nadal, only winning five of their 18 matches, but the better news for Murray is that those wins have all come on hard courts. And he did beat Nadal on his way to the 2008 US Open final and if this final did occur, you have to wonder about Nadal's knees after two brutal weeks on this surface.
Prediction: Murray to fall just short after a five-set epic semi-final with Djokovic, who will go onto beat Nadal in the final in two weeks.
Obviously I hope I'm wrong in that prediction.
Saturday, 3 August 2013
English Championship Preview: Runners and Riders
The English Championship kicks off in earnest at 12.15 today when Burnley take on Bolton in a northwest derby before a whole host of other teams kick off at the traditional time of 3pm, with Derby and Blackburn playing on Sunday.
For my money, the English second tier always delivers season after season in terms of excitement, drama and unpredictability. If I am being honest, it is one of my favourite leagues to watch in the world. With that in mind, here I take a look at some of the teams I reckon will do well this season and those that will be at the wrong end of the table.
The Promotion Candidates
QPR: The Londoners were one of the three sides relegated from the Premier League last season and whilst they have lost some of their squad including Christopher Samba, Djibril Cisse and Jamie Mackie, manager Harry Redknapp has bought pretty shrewdly so far bringing in free-scoring Charlie Austin from Burnley and midfielder Karl Henry from Wolves amongst others. With their spending power and squad, they should win the division. However, I have to question Redknapp's ability to be tactically astute enough to win one of the toughest leagues in the world.
Reading: Reading are my own personal favourites for the league. Nigel Adkins is a man that knows this league inside out, having won promotion with Southampton in the league two years ago. The bonus for the Royals is that they have managed to keep their squad from last season, which has some very good talent in it in all areas of the park. They've also brought in Royston Drenthe, which is something of a coup for Adkins.
Watford: Gianfranco Zola's side will be looking to put last seasons play-off final and final day heartache by mounting a promotion charge this season. There seems to be controversial questions constantly surrounding the Hornets over their agreement with Udinese, but I have never really seen the fuss to be honest. Football is all about marketing these days and I think Zola should be applauded for bringing new talent into the Championship. With that in mind and backed with a good style of football, they can go very close this season.
Wigan Athletic: I'm still tipping Wigan to do well despite losing manager Roberto Martinez to Everton in the summer. New boss Owen Coyle has had his problems in recent times, but he did an excellent job with Burnley in this division and has a squad capable of beating most teams in the Championship. Led by new striker Grant Holt, they should make the play-offs at least.
The Dark Horses
Bolton: I think Dougie Freedman's side could surprise a lot of people this season. The Wanderers finished last season very strongly and will be going into the new season full of confidence. I rate Freedman hugely as a man-manager and in attacking terms, he has a lot to choose from including new striker Jermaine Beckford.
Nottingham Forest: Another side who finished the previous campaign strongly and in Billy Davies, they have a manager who is something of a Championship specialist. Jamie Mackie is a great signing for this level and you have to fancy them to reach the play-offs at least.
Ipswich Town: Mick McCarthy's men are my real outside bet, but are worth keeping an eye on. It's pushing it to say they can win the league after finishing 14th last season, but they've shown good form in pre-season and McCarthy is certainly confident- saying they are aiming for the top six.
Relegation Strugglers:
Yeovil Town: It will be nothing short of a miracle if Gary Johnson's men stay up. They did remarkably well to get promoted last season but surely this is a bridge too far. However, they love fighting against the odds, so you never know they might just surprise everyone.
Doncaster: The League One champions will be at the wrong end of the table despite signing One Directions Louis Tomlinson in a bizarre stunt on Thursday. New manager Paul Dickov did well at Oldham, but faces a big test of his credentials especially if they get off to a slow start.
Barnsley: The Yorkshiremen have hovered around the relegation zone for a number of years and only avoided dropping down to League One on the final day last season. Expect a season of struggle for David Flitcroft's side.
My 2013-2014 Championship Table
1. Reading
2. Bolton
3. Watford
4. QPR
5. Notts Forest
6. Wigan
7. Ipswich
8. Leicester
9. Brighton
10. Leeds
11. Derby
12. Middlesbrough
13. Blackburn
14. Birmingham
15. Blackpool
16. Charlton
17. Burnley
18. Millwall
19. Bournemouth
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Huddersfield
22. Doncaster
23. Barnsley
24. Yeovil
For my money, the English second tier always delivers season after season in terms of excitement, drama and unpredictability. If I am being honest, it is one of my favourite leagues to watch in the world. With that in mind, here I take a look at some of the teams I reckon will do well this season and those that will be at the wrong end of the table.
The Promotion Candidates
QPR: The Londoners were one of the three sides relegated from the Premier League last season and whilst they have lost some of their squad including Christopher Samba, Djibril Cisse and Jamie Mackie, manager Harry Redknapp has bought pretty shrewdly so far bringing in free-scoring Charlie Austin from Burnley and midfielder Karl Henry from Wolves amongst others. With their spending power and squad, they should win the division. However, I have to question Redknapp's ability to be tactically astute enough to win one of the toughest leagues in the world.
Reading: Reading are my own personal favourites for the league. Nigel Adkins is a man that knows this league inside out, having won promotion with Southampton in the league two years ago. The bonus for the Royals is that they have managed to keep their squad from last season, which has some very good talent in it in all areas of the park. They've also brought in Royston Drenthe, which is something of a coup for Adkins.
Watford: Gianfranco Zola's side will be looking to put last seasons play-off final and final day heartache by mounting a promotion charge this season. There seems to be controversial questions constantly surrounding the Hornets over their agreement with Udinese, but I have never really seen the fuss to be honest. Football is all about marketing these days and I think Zola should be applauded for bringing new talent into the Championship. With that in mind and backed with a good style of football, they can go very close this season.
Wigan Athletic: I'm still tipping Wigan to do well despite losing manager Roberto Martinez to Everton in the summer. New boss Owen Coyle has had his problems in recent times, but he did an excellent job with Burnley in this division and has a squad capable of beating most teams in the Championship. Led by new striker Grant Holt, they should make the play-offs at least.
The Dark Horses
Bolton: I think Dougie Freedman's side could surprise a lot of people this season. The Wanderers finished last season very strongly and will be going into the new season full of confidence. I rate Freedman hugely as a man-manager and in attacking terms, he has a lot to choose from including new striker Jermaine Beckford.
Nottingham Forest: Another side who finished the previous campaign strongly and in Billy Davies, they have a manager who is something of a Championship specialist. Jamie Mackie is a great signing for this level and you have to fancy them to reach the play-offs at least.
Ipswich Town: Mick McCarthy's men are my real outside bet, but are worth keeping an eye on. It's pushing it to say they can win the league after finishing 14th last season, but they've shown good form in pre-season and McCarthy is certainly confident- saying they are aiming for the top six.
Relegation Strugglers:
Yeovil Town: It will be nothing short of a miracle if Gary Johnson's men stay up. They did remarkably well to get promoted last season but surely this is a bridge too far. However, they love fighting against the odds, so you never know they might just surprise everyone.
Doncaster: The League One champions will be at the wrong end of the table despite signing One Directions Louis Tomlinson in a bizarre stunt on Thursday. New manager Paul Dickov did well at Oldham, but faces a big test of his credentials especially if they get off to a slow start.
Barnsley: The Yorkshiremen have hovered around the relegation zone for a number of years and only avoided dropping down to League One on the final day last season. Expect a season of struggle for David Flitcroft's side.
My 2013-2014 Championship Table
1. Reading
2. Bolton
3. Watford
4. QPR
5. Notts Forest
6. Wigan
7. Ipswich
8. Leicester
9. Brighton
10. Leeds
11. Derby
12. Middlesbrough
13. Blackburn
14. Birmingham
15. Blackpool
16. Charlton
17. Burnley
18. Millwall
19. Bournemouth
20. Sheffield Wednesday
21. Huddersfield
22. Doncaster
23. Barnsley
24. Yeovil
Sunday, 28 July 2013
Lance Armstrong Has a Point about Cycling's Doping History
For those people that know me well, it might surprise you that football was not the first sport I was interested in; instead at a very young age I became enraptured by the 1994 Tour De France.
This was at the time when Spaniard Miguel 'Big Mig' Indurain was dominating the event winning it five times in a row from 1991-1995. However, it wasn't really until the late 1990s that I got properly into cycling's premier event.
And the reason I started viewing again was down to one man- Lance Armstrong. Even though I was only eight when he won his first Tour I was still mesmerised by the story of Armstrong coming back from near death to win the world's greatest bike race. Hindsight proves that my young self was ridiculously naive but so was my father who had watched the race since the 70s. Armstrong's confession last year that he had doped was truly shocking and I felt let down along with millions of other cycling fans.
However, some of my initial anger at Armstrong's doping has now subsided. And I actually feel he is taking too much heat from the media, cycling fans and fellow riders. This isn't to say I don't condemn Armstrong's cheating. It was abhorrent and has ultimately left cycling in a position from which it will take a long time to recover from.
This week more revelations emerged from the 1998 Tour, which was the most shameful edition of the Tour De France in its 100 year history, so much so that it is referred to as the Tour De Doping. It has now been revealed that the winner of the yellow jersey that year Marco Pantani, the runner up Jan Ullrich and green jersey winner Erik Zabel all tested positive for the banned substance EPO.
Armstrong who didn't compete in the Tour that year because he was fighting cancer, but says he isn't surprised at this weeks revelations. And neither am I. But there has been barely a whimper in the media and that's where my defence of Armstrong comes in.
Due to Armstrong winning in 1999 few questions were asked about his performance apart from the wonderful David Walsh of The Sunday Times and the French media. Instead, the focus was on the miraculous recovery from cancer and him winning the world's toughest bike race. He became the face of cycling and with a celebrity girlfriend in the form of Sheryl Crow on his arm, Armstrong was a worldwide superstar. That's why his confession was such a big story and remains so.
But how many people in the general public could pick out Ullrich in a police-line up or Zabel for that matter? I'm willing to bet not many. However, why shouldn't their crimes be plastered over the back pages of the sports pages? Cycling can't recover from it's shameful past unless every rider who cheated is tackled over their past crimes (admittedly Pantani's crimes have now gone to the grave after he died in 2004).
And what of Eddy Merckx, widely regarded as the greatest cyclist of all time? He still gets an invite to the presentation ceremony every year at the Tour De France, yet he tested positive three times between 1969-1977 and he actually supported Armstrong when he was accused of drug use. Armstrong will be barred from the tour for life and rightly so, but the organisers are being super hyper-critical here.
I am a firm believer in banning drug cheats for life. It might sound harsh to some, but if athletes know they can come back in a few years after taking banned substances, then there is a high chance they can do so again. I cannot fathom how lightly Alberto Contador's comeback to the Tour De France this year has been taken after he is a known former drug user. Contador was heralded as one of the favourites and a top climber. Instead, questions should have been asked if Contador was clean again, especially in this post Armstrong era. Once again, I feel this is because outwith the cycling world, Contador isn't particularly well known unlike Armstrong who I'd argue is one of the five biggest sportsmen of the last twenty years.
As I mentioned, I got properly into cycling in the late 90s and I had numerous heroes at the time including Zabel, Ullrich, Mario Cippolini and Pantani. They have all proven to be drug users yet you would hardly know about them. It is the same in athletics and other sports (how many of you know this week Viktor Troicki, a Serbian tennis player has been banned for 18 months for failing to provide a blood sample). If this was Nadal or Murray, then it would be the talk of workplaces, homes and pubs across the world.
Armstrong did wrong and it is sad that Chris Froome's victory in the Tour De France last week cannot be celebrated without suspicion. Armstrong created a bullying culture that was disgraceful and put the highest pressure on teammates and the peloton to take drugs, which is hopefully a thing of the past.
But Merckx and Jacques Anquetil another five time Tour De France winner who died in 1987 continue to be celebrated despite them openly admitting to doping during their careers. Indeed, Anquetil like Armstrong said you couldn't win the Tour without taking drugs.
This might sound like I'm saying because everyone did it, Armstrong should have been allowed to get away with it. That couldn't be further from the truth. Instead I am asking for a bit of fairnness in the reporting of doping in cycling.
Right now, there is a blank list from 1999-2005 where Armstrong's wins used to be. I reckon they should be making some updates to other years very soon. It would be a welcome step in the right direction.
This was at the time when Spaniard Miguel 'Big Mig' Indurain was dominating the event winning it five times in a row from 1991-1995. However, it wasn't really until the late 1990s that I got properly into cycling's premier event.
And the reason I started viewing again was down to one man- Lance Armstrong. Even though I was only eight when he won his first Tour I was still mesmerised by the story of Armstrong coming back from near death to win the world's greatest bike race. Hindsight proves that my young self was ridiculously naive but so was my father who had watched the race since the 70s. Armstrong's confession last year that he had doped was truly shocking and I felt let down along with millions of other cycling fans.
However, some of my initial anger at Armstrong's doping has now subsided. And I actually feel he is taking too much heat from the media, cycling fans and fellow riders. This isn't to say I don't condemn Armstrong's cheating. It was abhorrent and has ultimately left cycling in a position from which it will take a long time to recover from.
This week more revelations emerged from the 1998 Tour, which was the most shameful edition of the Tour De France in its 100 year history, so much so that it is referred to as the Tour De Doping. It has now been revealed that the winner of the yellow jersey that year Marco Pantani, the runner up Jan Ullrich and green jersey winner Erik Zabel all tested positive for the banned substance EPO.
Armstrong who didn't compete in the Tour that year because he was fighting cancer, but says he isn't surprised at this weeks revelations. And neither am I. But there has been barely a whimper in the media and that's where my defence of Armstrong comes in.
Due to Armstrong winning in 1999 few questions were asked about his performance apart from the wonderful David Walsh of The Sunday Times and the French media. Instead, the focus was on the miraculous recovery from cancer and him winning the world's toughest bike race. He became the face of cycling and with a celebrity girlfriend in the form of Sheryl Crow on his arm, Armstrong was a worldwide superstar. That's why his confession was such a big story and remains so.
But how many people in the general public could pick out Ullrich in a police-line up or Zabel for that matter? I'm willing to bet not many. However, why shouldn't their crimes be plastered over the back pages of the sports pages? Cycling can't recover from it's shameful past unless every rider who cheated is tackled over their past crimes (admittedly Pantani's crimes have now gone to the grave after he died in 2004).
And what of Eddy Merckx, widely regarded as the greatest cyclist of all time? He still gets an invite to the presentation ceremony every year at the Tour De France, yet he tested positive three times between 1969-1977 and he actually supported Armstrong when he was accused of drug use. Armstrong will be barred from the tour for life and rightly so, but the organisers are being super hyper-critical here.
I am a firm believer in banning drug cheats for life. It might sound harsh to some, but if athletes know they can come back in a few years after taking banned substances, then there is a high chance they can do so again. I cannot fathom how lightly Alberto Contador's comeback to the Tour De France this year has been taken after he is a known former drug user. Contador was heralded as one of the favourites and a top climber. Instead, questions should have been asked if Contador was clean again, especially in this post Armstrong era. Once again, I feel this is because outwith the cycling world, Contador isn't particularly well known unlike Armstrong who I'd argue is one of the five biggest sportsmen of the last twenty years.
As I mentioned, I got properly into cycling in the late 90s and I had numerous heroes at the time including Zabel, Ullrich, Mario Cippolini and Pantani. They have all proven to be drug users yet you would hardly know about them. It is the same in athletics and other sports (how many of you know this week Viktor Troicki, a Serbian tennis player has been banned for 18 months for failing to provide a blood sample). If this was Nadal or Murray, then it would be the talk of workplaces, homes and pubs across the world.
Armstrong did wrong and it is sad that Chris Froome's victory in the Tour De France last week cannot be celebrated without suspicion. Armstrong created a bullying culture that was disgraceful and put the highest pressure on teammates and the peloton to take drugs, which is hopefully a thing of the past.
But Merckx and Jacques Anquetil another five time Tour De France winner who died in 1987 continue to be celebrated despite them openly admitting to doping during their careers. Indeed, Anquetil like Armstrong said you couldn't win the Tour without taking drugs.
This might sound like I'm saying because everyone did it, Armstrong should have been allowed to get away with it. That couldn't be further from the truth. Instead I am asking for a bit of fairnness in the reporting of doping in cycling.
Right now, there is a blank list from 1999-2005 where Armstrong's wins used to be. I reckon they should be making some updates to other years very soon. It would be a welcome step in the right direction.
Sunday, 23 June 2013
Andy Murray's Route to (potential) Wimbledon Glory
Tomorrow marks that annual time of the year when I will go into a state of angst about Britain's number one tennis player, Andy Murray for (hopefully) the next fortnight. Yes, Wimbledon begins in earnest in less than 24 hours and once again there is a huge air of expectation surrounding Murray's chances of winning the tournament for the first time.
The weight of pressure on his shoulders has undoubtedly become even heavier since he reached the final last year, which he lost to Roger Federer. He then recovered to beat the Swiss great in the Olympic final at the same venue less than a month later, before beating World No 1 Novak Djokovic to win a thrilling US Open in September to finally secure his first Grand Slam.
There is a very acceptable train of thought from many people who believe that winning Wimbledon for the first time is a natural next step in Murray's career.
Here's a look at the route Murray will have to overcome if he is to lift the title on Sunday July 7th at SW19.
Round One: Benjamin Becker (Germany)- World Ranking: 95
Murray begins his quest for glory tomorrow on Centre Court against a much more unheralded German named Becker. Benjamin isn't any relation to 3-time Wimbledon champ of the 80's Boris and whilst he has a big serve, this match should be fairly comfortable for Murray.
He recently beat him in straight sets at Queens before going on to win the tournament and whilst Becker will be keen for revenge he has never progressed beyond the second round of a slam.
Round Two: James Ward (GBR- 216)/ Lu Yen Hsun (Taiwan- 74)
There is a potential for an all British tie for Murray to negotiate in round two if his Davis Cup colleague Ward can come through his first round match. Lu is no mug though and famously upset three time Wimbledon runner-up Andy Roddick in the fourth round in 2010. An all British match-up would make for nice viewing, but ultimately Murray would have too much class for Ward, and indeed that matter the World Number 74 from Taiwan.
Round Three: Tommy Robredo (Spain - 29)/ Nicolas Mahut (France -240)
Most previews I have read so far about Murray's chances seem to have it nailed on that he will play Robredo in Round 3. However, I can see Mahut beating him in Round 2 due to his good current form and for the fact the Spaniard is much more comfortable on clay. Mahut defeated Swiss star Stan Wawrinka yesterday in Holland to win his first ATP title at the age of 31 and he has a decent record on Grass having reached the final of Queens in 2007 whilst also beating Murray there last year.
Robredo has a respectable record against the Scot winning two out of their four matches, but the last of those was six years ago. Whoever makes it to this stage should be comfortably seen off by Murray to ensure his passage into the second week.
Round Four: Janko Tipsarevic (Serbia- 14)
This wouldn't be the easiest start to the second week for Murray, but it is far from the toughest either. The Serbian has been as high as number eight in the world and did beat Murray in Dubai last year, but I see this taking a similar path to how Murray beat Marin Cilic at the same stage in 2012. On that occasion, Murray sensed it could be his year and took care of the Croatian in three sets and I think he will do the same to Tipsarevic.
Quarter Final: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France - 7)
The first 'real' danger man for Murray who happens to be my outside tip to win the tournament. With his big serve and huge forehand, Tsonga is capable of beating anyone on his day as he has proven on numerous occasions against Federer in recent years. However, Tsonga has only once tasted victory against Murray and that was over five years ago. He is also inconsistent and struggles to deal with Murray's superb returns. I'd fancy Murray in four sets if this match takes place.
Semi- Final: Rafael Nadal (Spain - 5)/Roger Federer (Switzerland -3)
The fact that Nadal and Federer could meet in the quarter finals at Wimbledon shows the farce of the seedings to me, but it could also greatly benefit Murray's chances of winning the tournament. Despite losing to Federer in last years final, I think Murray would prefer to play him. Federer is approaching 32 now and whilst Wimbledon gives him the best chance of an 18th slam, he now struggles to keep pace with the more athletic pace of the game played by Murray, Djokovic, Nadal and even Tsonga.
Murray has also got an 11-9 winning record against the seven time champion whilst he has lost 13 times out of 18 against Nadal. The Spaniard will be hugely keen to reclaim his Wimbledon crown, especially after the shock of losing in the second round last year. However, a more aggressive Murray with a home crowd backing him certainly can take out Nadal these days but I'd be more confident of him beating Federer.
Final: Novak Djokovic (Serbia - 1)
The final would be rather easy for Murray. All he would have to do is beat the World Number One having beat either Nadal or Federer two days before. Despite his triumph in 2011 at Wimbledon, I still have doubts about Djokovic on grass and I'd go along with 1987 champion Pat Cash's assessment that he's the weakest of the top four on grass. Murray showed at the US Open that he can go five hours against Djokovic and if there is an Olympic style atmosphere at Centre Court, then Murray could finally end 77 years of British hurt at Wimbledon.
I don't want to be bold and admit Murray will win Wimbledon but he has prepared himself superbly and his win at Queens Club last week has buoyed him in terms of fitness and how his grass court play is currently doing.
A second Grand Slam and a first Wimbledon for Murray is very possible, but he'll have to climb some very big mountains to get there. Bring on the nail-biting and hiding behind the sofa over the next two weeks.
The weight of pressure on his shoulders has undoubtedly become even heavier since he reached the final last year, which he lost to Roger Federer. He then recovered to beat the Swiss great in the Olympic final at the same venue less than a month later, before beating World No 1 Novak Djokovic to win a thrilling US Open in September to finally secure his first Grand Slam.
There is a very acceptable train of thought from many people who believe that winning Wimbledon for the first time is a natural next step in Murray's career.
Here's a look at the route Murray will have to overcome if he is to lift the title on Sunday July 7th at SW19.
Round One: Benjamin Becker (Germany)- World Ranking: 95
Murray begins his quest for glory tomorrow on Centre Court against a much more unheralded German named Becker. Benjamin isn't any relation to 3-time Wimbledon champ of the 80's Boris and whilst he has a big serve, this match should be fairly comfortable for Murray.
He recently beat him in straight sets at Queens before going on to win the tournament and whilst Becker will be keen for revenge he has never progressed beyond the second round of a slam.
Round Two: James Ward (GBR- 216)/ Lu Yen Hsun (Taiwan- 74)
There is a potential for an all British tie for Murray to negotiate in round two if his Davis Cup colleague Ward can come through his first round match. Lu is no mug though and famously upset three time Wimbledon runner-up Andy Roddick in the fourth round in 2010. An all British match-up would make for nice viewing, but ultimately Murray would have too much class for Ward, and indeed that matter the World Number 74 from Taiwan.
Round Three: Tommy Robredo (Spain - 29)/ Nicolas Mahut (France -240)
Most previews I have read so far about Murray's chances seem to have it nailed on that he will play Robredo in Round 3. However, I can see Mahut beating him in Round 2 due to his good current form and for the fact the Spaniard is much more comfortable on clay. Mahut defeated Swiss star Stan Wawrinka yesterday in Holland to win his first ATP title at the age of 31 and he has a decent record on Grass having reached the final of Queens in 2007 whilst also beating Murray there last year.
Robredo has a respectable record against the Scot winning two out of their four matches, but the last of those was six years ago. Whoever makes it to this stage should be comfortably seen off by Murray to ensure his passage into the second week.
Round Four: Janko Tipsarevic (Serbia- 14)
This wouldn't be the easiest start to the second week for Murray, but it is far from the toughest either. The Serbian has been as high as number eight in the world and did beat Murray in Dubai last year, but I see this taking a similar path to how Murray beat Marin Cilic at the same stage in 2012. On that occasion, Murray sensed it could be his year and took care of the Croatian in three sets and I think he will do the same to Tipsarevic.
Quarter Final: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France - 7)
The first 'real' danger man for Murray who happens to be my outside tip to win the tournament. With his big serve and huge forehand, Tsonga is capable of beating anyone on his day as he has proven on numerous occasions against Federer in recent years. However, Tsonga has only once tasted victory against Murray and that was over five years ago. He is also inconsistent and struggles to deal with Murray's superb returns. I'd fancy Murray in four sets if this match takes place.
Semi- Final: Rafael Nadal (Spain - 5)/Roger Federer (Switzerland -3)
The fact that Nadal and Federer could meet in the quarter finals at Wimbledon shows the farce of the seedings to me, but it could also greatly benefit Murray's chances of winning the tournament. Despite losing to Federer in last years final, I think Murray would prefer to play him. Federer is approaching 32 now and whilst Wimbledon gives him the best chance of an 18th slam, he now struggles to keep pace with the more athletic pace of the game played by Murray, Djokovic, Nadal and even Tsonga.
Murray has also got an 11-9 winning record against the seven time champion whilst he has lost 13 times out of 18 against Nadal. The Spaniard will be hugely keen to reclaim his Wimbledon crown, especially after the shock of losing in the second round last year. However, a more aggressive Murray with a home crowd backing him certainly can take out Nadal these days but I'd be more confident of him beating Federer.
Final: Novak Djokovic (Serbia - 1)
The final would be rather easy for Murray. All he would have to do is beat the World Number One having beat either Nadal or Federer two days before. Despite his triumph in 2011 at Wimbledon, I still have doubts about Djokovic on grass and I'd go along with 1987 champion Pat Cash's assessment that he's the weakest of the top four on grass. Murray showed at the US Open that he can go five hours against Djokovic and if there is an Olympic style atmosphere at Centre Court, then Murray could finally end 77 years of British hurt at Wimbledon.
I don't want to be bold and admit Murray will win Wimbledon but he has prepared himself superbly and his win at Queens Club last week has buoyed him in terms of fitness and how his grass court play is currently doing.
A second Grand Slam and a first Wimbledon for Murray is very possible, but he'll have to climb some very big mountains to get there. Bring on the nail-biting and hiding behind the sofa over the next two weeks.
Saturday, 25 May 2013
A Procession for Rafa?: The French Open Men's Singles 2013 Preview
For the next two weeks, tennis lovers will have their eyes firmly fixed on Paris and in particular the clay courts of Roland Garros. Many believe that the men's tournament already has Rafael Nadal's name written on the trophy and you would be easily forgiven for sharing that opinion.
The Spaniard has a remarkable record at the French Open, having only lost one match since making his debut in 2005. That came in 2009 against Robin Soderling, but on that day he was suffering badly with his troublesome knees whilst his parents were also going through a divorce. He won four consecutive titles before then and is currently on a run of three successive wins at Roland Garros, having secured a hard-fought win over Novak Djokovic last year.
Nadal quickly earned the title 'King of Clay' after his exploits as a 18 year old in 2005 and there is very little doubt that he is the greatest clay court player of all time. He has won 41 of his 56 career singles titles on his favoured surface and these include a record eight consecutive wins at the Monte Carlo Masters and seven victories in the Rome Masters both of which are always played in the run-up to the French Open.
Worryingly for his opponents wanting to challenge him, Nadal has been in blistering form since returning from a knee injury in February which kept him out of the second half of last years tennis season as well as this years Australian Open. He has already won six titles since February and last week he destroyed Roger Federer 6-1, 6-3 in the final of the Rome Masters.
However, Nadal can be beaten but it will take some effort. World Number One Djokovic achieved that when he beat Nadal in Monte Carlo in April this year to stop Nadal's run of never losing there since 2005. Djokovic is certainly the most likely man to beat the Spaniard at Roland Garros, but with the way the draw has worked out, it looks as though he will have to do it at the semi-final stage. The Serb did give Nadal a real scare in last years final and he has also beat him on clay in the past at the Madrid and the Rome Masters. He also has the added incentive of knowing that if he wins he will complete the set of winning all the Grand Slams at least once.
And what of Nadal's fellow Spaniard David Ferrer? With Andy Murray ruled out through a back injury, he is the number four seed and is on line to meet Roger Federer in the semi-finals. He will never get a better chance to finally reach a first grand-slam final at the age of 31. Federer may have won the French Open before and reached four other finals (losing to Nadal on all of those occasions), but Ferrer shares many of his fellow Spaniard's qualities on the clay-courts and nowadays I would predict Ferrer to have the edge over Federer. He has won ten career titles on the surface over the years and it can be argued that he is currently the best player without a slam to his name. However, his record at the French Open is rather patchy despite reaching the semi-finals last year. On his day, he is a match for everyone in the draw and he will relish the route to the semi-finals he has over the first ten days.
The real outside bet for this tournament is Stanislas Wawrinka. He has lived in the shadow of his countryman Federer for most of his career, but his clay-court form this season has been superb. He beat Ferrer in Portugal to win his first title in two years whilst he also beat Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych in Madrid before succumbing to Nadal in the final. Wawrinka possesses an incredible one-handed backhand and is a real danger to all of the top players if his mind is fully focused.
Come the 9th of June, Rafael Nadal should be lifting an eighth French Open title and with the form he is in, it is very hard to see who can stop him over the next fortnight. Tennis is a curious game though and major upsets have happened before. You only need to mention Lukas Rosol to Nadal to confirm that.
The Spaniard has a remarkable record at the French Open, having only lost one match since making his debut in 2005. That came in 2009 against Robin Soderling, but on that day he was suffering badly with his troublesome knees whilst his parents were also going through a divorce. He won four consecutive titles before then and is currently on a run of three successive wins at Roland Garros, having secured a hard-fought win over Novak Djokovic last year.
Nadal quickly earned the title 'King of Clay' after his exploits as a 18 year old in 2005 and there is very little doubt that he is the greatest clay court player of all time. He has won 41 of his 56 career singles titles on his favoured surface and these include a record eight consecutive wins at the Monte Carlo Masters and seven victories in the Rome Masters both of which are always played in the run-up to the French Open.
Worryingly for his opponents wanting to challenge him, Nadal has been in blistering form since returning from a knee injury in February which kept him out of the second half of last years tennis season as well as this years Australian Open. He has already won six titles since February and last week he destroyed Roger Federer 6-1, 6-3 in the final of the Rome Masters.
However, Nadal can be beaten but it will take some effort. World Number One Djokovic achieved that when he beat Nadal in Monte Carlo in April this year to stop Nadal's run of never losing there since 2005. Djokovic is certainly the most likely man to beat the Spaniard at Roland Garros, but with the way the draw has worked out, it looks as though he will have to do it at the semi-final stage. The Serb did give Nadal a real scare in last years final and he has also beat him on clay in the past at the Madrid and the Rome Masters. He also has the added incentive of knowing that if he wins he will complete the set of winning all the Grand Slams at least once.
And what of Nadal's fellow Spaniard David Ferrer? With Andy Murray ruled out through a back injury, he is the number four seed and is on line to meet Roger Federer in the semi-finals. He will never get a better chance to finally reach a first grand-slam final at the age of 31. Federer may have won the French Open before and reached four other finals (losing to Nadal on all of those occasions), but Ferrer shares many of his fellow Spaniard's qualities on the clay-courts and nowadays I would predict Ferrer to have the edge over Federer. He has won ten career titles on the surface over the years and it can be argued that he is currently the best player without a slam to his name. However, his record at the French Open is rather patchy despite reaching the semi-finals last year. On his day, he is a match for everyone in the draw and he will relish the route to the semi-finals he has over the first ten days.
The real outside bet for this tournament is Stanislas Wawrinka. He has lived in the shadow of his countryman Federer for most of his career, but his clay-court form this season has been superb. He beat Ferrer in Portugal to win his first title in two years whilst he also beat Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych in Madrid before succumbing to Nadal in the final. Wawrinka possesses an incredible one-handed backhand and is a real danger to all of the top players if his mind is fully focused.
Come the 9th of June, Rafael Nadal should be lifting an eighth French Open title and with the form he is in, it is very hard to see who can stop him over the next fortnight. Tennis is a curious game though and major upsets have happened before. You only need to mention Lukas Rosol to Nadal to confirm that.
Wednesday, 15 May 2013
Volvo World Matchplay Championship Preview
This week sees the European Tour's golfers head to Bulgaria for the first time ever to compete in the prestigious Volvo World Matchplay Championship.
If the name sounds familiar to you, that's because it was the tournament that was played every year from 1972 until 2007 at Wentworth and saw dominant winners such as Ernie Els, Seve Ballesteros and Greg Norman. In 2009 and over the last two years, it was played in Spain, but now the tournament will be taken around Europe each year.
According to the legendary Gary Player, the course he designed; Thracian Cliffs, "Is unlike any other golf course on the planet." With that in mind, the 24 players who will tee-it up from tomorrow onwards at "The Cliffs" will face a trip largely into the unknown. The format sees eight groups of three, with the top two in each group progressing to the last 16. From then on, it will be a straight knock-out competition, before a champion is crowned on Sunday.
Here are four men I fancy to do well this week:
Graeme McDowell (8/1): The Northern Irishman only just lost out last year when he was beaten by Nicolas Colsaerts in the final, but he could well go one better this year. He is in good form, having just won the RBC Heritage in America last month and his short game is a huge asset in this matchplay format. Memories of his winning putt at the 2010 Ryder Cup for Europe always come flooding back on weeks like this and if he can channel some of that spirit, McDowell could take some beating.
Nicolas Colsaerts (9/1): The Belgian may have suffered a hiccup in his preparation when his clubs didn't arrive in Bulgaria when they were supposed to, but that hasn't deterred me from looking at generous odds for this weeks defending champion. He is a huge hitter and seems to relish the matchplay format, having proven himself superbly as a debutant in last years Ryder Cup. He does have a tough opening game against South African Branden Grace, but Colsaerts is more than capable of seeing him off to kick-start a run in his quest to keep hold of the trophy.
Brett Rumford (25/1): No-one in the field is currently in better form than the Australian who has won the last two tournaments he has played in South Korea and China. His putting has been superb in both of those tournaments and these odds are simply too high to discard for a player who is full of confidence right now. If he can get through a tough group, where he has been drawn alongside Gonzalo Fernandez Castano and Jamie Donaldson, then Rumford could be picking up his third successive winners cheque on Sunday.
Stephen Gallacher (33/1): A surprising choice perhaps, but don't rule out the Scot picking up a second victory of the season this week. He was superb in winning the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of the season and was recently tied 6th in the Ballantine's Championship in South Korea. He seems to have been dismissed because he is in a group with McDowell and Chris Wood but he is more than capable of holding his own. His putting has improved greatly and he is one of the purest ball-strikers in this weeks field. Ignore Gallacher if you wish, but it might come back to haunt you.
Matchplay is my favourite format of golf and this weeks tournament promises to be four days of thrilling golf, with a number of the European Tour's hottest players teeing up in Bulgaria. And it will be fascinating to see who handles a brand new course to emerge as the latest winner of one of the best events on the European Tour.
*All odds supplied by William Hill.
If the name sounds familiar to you, that's because it was the tournament that was played every year from 1972 until 2007 at Wentworth and saw dominant winners such as Ernie Els, Seve Ballesteros and Greg Norman. In 2009 and over the last two years, it was played in Spain, but now the tournament will be taken around Europe each year.
According to the legendary Gary Player, the course he designed; Thracian Cliffs, "Is unlike any other golf course on the planet." With that in mind, the 24 players who will tee-it up from tomorrow onwards at "The Cliffs" will face a trip largely into the unknown. The format sees eight groups of three, with the top two in each group progressing to the last 16. From then on, it will be a straight knock-out competition, before a champion is crowned on Sunday.
Here are four men I fancy to do well this week:
Graeme McDowell (8/1): The Northern Irishman only just lost out last year when he was beaten by Nicolas Colsaerts in the final, but he could well go one better this year. He is in good form, having just won the RBC Heritage in America last month and his short game is a huge asset in this matchplay format. Memories of his winning putt at the 2010 Ryder Cup for Europe always come flooding back on weeks like this and if he can channel some of that spirit, McDowell could take some beating.
Nicolas Colsaerts (9/1): The Belgian may have suffered a hiccup in his preparation when his clubs didn't arrive in Bulgaria when they were supposed to, but that hasn't deterred me from looking at generous odds for this weeks defending champion. He is a huge hitter and seems to relish the matchplay format, having proven himself superbly as a debutant in last years Ryder Cup. He does have a tough opening game against South African Branden Grace, but Colsaerts is more than capable of seeing him off to kick-start a run in his quest to keep hold of the trophy.
Brett Rumford (25/1): No-one in the field is currently in better form than the Australian who has won the last two tournaments he has played in South Korea and China. His putting has been superb in both of those tournaments and these odds are simply too high to discard for a player who is full of confidence right now. If he can get through a tough group, where he has been drawn alongside Gonzalo Fernandez Castano and Jamie Donaldson, then Rumford could be picking up his third successive winners cheque on Sunday.
Stephen Gallacher (33/1): A surprising choice perhaps, but don't rule out the Scot picking up a second victory of the season this week. He was superb in winning the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of the season and was recently tied 6th in the Ballantine's Championship in South Korea. He seems to have been dismissed because he is in a group with McDowell and Chris Wood but he is more than capable of holding his own. His putting has improved greatly and he is one of the purest ball-strikers in this weeks field. Ignore Gallacher if you wish, but it might come back to haunt you.
Matchplay is my favourite format of golf and this weeks tournament promises to be four days of thrilling golf, with a number of the European Tour's hottest players teeing up in Bulgaria. And it will be fascinating to see who handles a brand new course to emerge as the latest winner of one of the best events on the European Tour.
*All odds supplied by William Hill.
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