Saturday 27 June 2015

Andy Murray's (potential) route to (potential) Wimbledon glory

With the Wimbledon championships now only two days away from starting, excitement is at fever pitch among tennis fans, in what is seen as the highlight of their sporting calendar.

Excitement is particularly prevalent among Andy Murray supporters as they hope the man from Dunblane can go on and lift a second men's singles title on Sunday July 12th. After the draw was made yesterday, many have said that Murray faces a tough route if he is to secure another Grand Slam title. It is true that he might have to potentially face Nadal, Federer and Djokovic in the final three rounds if he is to succeed but with his form and a huge crowd backing him, there's no reason to doubt Murray. He can complete a fantastic second triumph as I wrote earlier this week  : http://ewansworldofsport.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/andy-murray-is-primed-for-second.html

With that in mind, here is Murray's potential route to another Wimbledon triumph in just over two weeks time.

Round One: Mikhail Kukushkin (Kazakhstan)

Murray's first opponent on Tuesday will be the World Number 58 from Kazakhstan. It's not an absolutely perfect start for Murray, but he shouldn't have too many problems against someone who does share something in common with Murray in that he is coached by a woman.

Murray has defeated Kukushkin on the two previous occasions the pair have met, both wins coming in a spell in Australia in 2012, where Murray won in three sets in the Brisbane Open, before comfortably beating Kukushkin in the Australian Open fourth round 6-1, 6-1 before Kukushkin retired after the first game of the third set. Murray isn't taking his opponent lightly and rightly so, considering he took a set off Nadal in the third round last year at Wimbledon and also beat Gael Monfils and Viktor Troicki in that run at the Australian Open.

Murray is too clever for this level of opponent though and I'm expecting a straight sets victory with the form he's in.

Round Two: Robin Haase (Netherlands)

Assuming a safe passage is negotiated by Murray through round one, he would most likely face Dutchman Robin Haase in round two. The pair know each other well having met on numerous occasions over the years, with the most famous seeing Murray fight back from two sets down to win in the second round of the 2011 US Open.

Murray has also beaten Haase more recently at the 2014 US Open, though he again was pushed in four sets. He also beat the man from Holland in straight sets in the 2013 Australian Open, with Haase's solitary victory in the match up coming at Rotterdam in 2008.

Haase is a tricky customer on his day but Murray shouldn't have much problems against an opponent who has only reached the third round once in six attempts at Wimbledon and that was four years ago.

Another potential opponent in Round Two for Murray is Colombian Alejandro Falla who almost stunned Centre Court and the sporting world in 2010, when he took a two sets lead against Roger Federer in the first round, only for the Swiss legend to fightback and end his heroic performance. That was five years ago though and Falla is more of a clay court specialist, so Murray wouldn't be overly troubled by him.

Round Three: Andreas Seppi (Italy)

A potential first 'proper' test for Murray would come in the last 32 against experienced Italian Andreas Seppi, who reached the final of the Halle Open on grass last week before losing to Roger Federer. That was revenge for Federer, over an opponent who defeated him in the third round of the Australian Open this year.

That highlights Seppi's skill and he definitely shouldn't be underestimated by Murray. The Italian also reached the last 16 at Wimbledon in 2013, defeating Kei Nishikori en route. He also won the pre Wimbledon grass court tournament at Eastbourne in 2011 and also reached the final of the same tournament in 2012, so Murray will have to play near to his best here.

Rising star Borna Coric from Croatia is also a potential opponent for Murray here and Murray will be wary if he does come up against him as he has already lost to the 18 year old in Dubai this year. You have to feel though Murray would have too much for him, in what is Coric's Wimbledon debut.

Round Four: Jo Wilfried Tsonga (France)

This would be a huge test for Murray as he entered the second week of the championships, particularly if the Frenchman played at his blistering and aggressive best on the day.

Murray does have an excellent record against Tsonga though, winning ten out of their 13 encounters including a semi final victory in 2012, to put him through to his first Wimbledon final. He also won their most recent encounter at the 2014 US Open, at a time when Murray wasn't playing anywhere near his best.

With Murray now in top form, you have to fancy him against a player who whilst he can be brilliant is also prone to a lot of unforced errors; exactly the sort of player Murray likes to play against. Tsonga is dangerous though and defeated Roger Federer from two sets down at Wimbledon in 2011 and loves the grass courts of Wimbledon.

I predict a four sets victory for Murray against an opponent who would face some potentially tough tests to get to the last 16, including a challenge against Gilles Muller of Luxembourg in Round One. Muller produced an incredible serving display at Queens recently against Murray, with Murray having to be a his defensive best to get through the quarter final. Big serving Ivo Karlovic could also be a very tough test for the Frenchman in Round 3. Karlovic might now be 36 but his serve is still a lethal weapon and he recently won a grass court doubles title in the Netherlands. 

Quarter Final: Rafael Nadal (Spain)

Who would ever have thought that we would see a day that Rafael Nadal would be seeded 10th in the draw for Wimbledon? That is the reality though for the Spaniard, who is clearly suffering from a lack of confidence in his game, despite winning a grass court tournament in Stuttgart earlier this month.

He was soundly beaten by Novak Djokovic in their quarter final meeting at the French Open and was also beaten by Murray in the final of the Madrid Masters in May. He couldn't continue his recent grass court form at Queens last week when he lost to Alexandr Dolgopolov in the first round.

Nadal might have won this Championship twice in 2008 and 2010 and reached the final on three other occasions, but there can be no doubting the man from Mallorca is not the player he was. Injuries have started to take their toll on him and players are no longer as intimidated by him, even on clay.

Murray has been beaten by Nadal everytime they have faced each other at Wimbledon but he would go into this quarter final meeting as favourite, due to clearly being in the better form. He would also take heart from the fact he beat Nadal on his favoured clay surface recently and know he would be playing a man who in the last three years at SW19 has lost to Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis and Nick Kyrigos.

Right now, I don't think Nadal will make this stage as he faces tough tests right from the word go with Round One pairing him against wily Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci. It is Round Three I see Nadal falling in to the Serbian Viktor Troicki, who is enjoying a renaissance and got to the semi finals of Queens last week.

Murray's likely opponent if Nadal didn't make it to the last eight would be Nadal's countryman David Ferrer. Ferrer might be 33 now, but he is as spirited as ever and never knows when he is beaten and would likely pose a tougher challenge than Nadal right now to Murray. Having said that Murray beat Ferrer in the quarter finals of the French Open this year, his third win in succession against the veteran and he did win their only grass court encounter, winning in four sets in the last eight of the 2012 Wimbledon championships.

Semi-Final: Roger Federer (Switzerland)

Federer is someone who barely needs an introduction. He has lifted the Wimbledon trophy on seven occasions and has won 17 Grand Slams in all. It's fair to say then, this is hardly the easiest potential semi final for Murray, against a man who defeated him in the 2012 final.

That 2012 final though remains the last Grand Slam Federer has won and as he approaches 34, issues surrounding his energy against younger opponents are coming to the fore more often as seen with his straight sets defeat by countryman Stan Wawrinka in the French Open this year. Federer can never be ruled out on grass though, having reached the final at Wimbledon 12 months ago and he collected another Halle Open title last weekend as a perfect preparation.

Murray would be keen for revenge against Federer for that final and of course did gain a degree of revenge shortly after that final, when he produced a stunning display to defeat him in straight sets and win Olympic gold on the same centre court.  

Federer might be desperate for a record breaking eighth Wimbledon title, but Murray at a semi final stage would be equally motivated to win through to the final and over a five set match, potentially in hot temperatures, Murray at almost six years younger than his opponent has to be fancied to win through.

Final: Novak Djokovic (Serbia)

You would be forgiven for being exhausted even just reading up to this stage about what Murray has to do to reach the final, but he would require one more huge effort to win a second Wimbledon crown against the man he defeated to win the trophy in 2013.

The World Number One has beaten Murray on the eight occasions they have met since that final two years ago, including in the Australian Open final and French Open semi finals this year. However, backed by a huge crowd I think Murray would have the edge over his opponent who does seem to have a weakness when it comes to Grand Slam finals, despite his often flawless performances leading up to finals day. He has lost six of his last nine finals, including to Wawrinka in France when he seemed set to complete the career Grand Slam.

Murray knows he has the beating of Djokovic on centre court and would be motivated to do it again, especially by winning a grand slam title under the guidance of coach Amelie Mauresmo, who Murray feels has come in for some unfair criticism. Murray also produced incredible tennis against Djokovic recently in France to fightback from two sets down in their French Open semi final. Although he lost the match, Murray showed that he is truly at the level again where he has the match and beating of Djokovic and if conditions are perfect like they were in 2013, then we could be in for a case of deja vu.

It all begins on Tuesday for Murray, as he embarks on his 10th appearance at Wimbledon. Come on Andy!





Tuesday 23 June 2015

Andy Murray is primed for a second Wimbledon title

Come Monday, the nation will hold it's collective breath for two weeks as Andy Murray sets out on his annual quest to emerge as the men's singles champion at Wimbledon. Of course, in 2013 Murray delivered a truly great British sporting afternoon when he defeated Novak Djokovic in straight sets to become the first British male to win Wimbledon for 77 years.

Now the man from Dunblane looks primed and ready to win a second Wimbledon title which would place him alongside current greats like Djokovic and Nadal and legends like Jimmy Connors and Stefan Edberg. So why am I feeling so confident about Murray's chances ahead of the 2015 tournament? A number of factors are in play.

The main one was his stunning week at Queens, which culminated in a victory over the big serving South African Kevin Anderson on Sunday to lift the trophy for a record equalling fourth time. Throughout the match, Murray always looked in total command of the situation, punishing Anderson with a series of aggressive groundstrokes, with his cross-court backhand skidding through the fast courts of Queens at its ferocious best. Add in the fact that he had to come out early on Sunday morning to complete a semi-final win against the wily Viktor Troicki and his win against Anderson becomes all the more impressive.

Not for one moment did Murray look tired on Sunday afternoon; it was quite the opposite in fact. He looked so relaxed and positive on court. Married life with Kim is treating him well as he's only lost one match since their wedding in April. Winning at Queens doesn't mean Murray's automatically going to win at Wimbledon of course as he won the title in 2009 and 2011 and didn't win at Wimbledon, though he did manage the back to back grass court titles in 2013. 

Murray's form this year has also been a cause for huge celebration. He has reached the final of the Australian Open and the semi finals of the French Open in the first two slam events of 2015 whilst he also brilliantly dismantled Nadal to win the Madrid Masters on clay. He also picked up a clay court title in Munich and reached the final of the Miami Masters and helped Great Britain to a Davis Cup win over the USA in March. He really couldn't have asked for a better first half of the year, though regular defeats to Novak Djokovic, particularly in the Australian Open final will be rankling with him heading in to Wimbledon.

However, he certainly hasn't seemed to have let those defeats linger on his mind for as long as he has done previously which again is a positive sign coming into Wimbledon where he knows he can beat Djokovic and other top players. He has just got on with developing his game under the guidance of Amelie Mauresmo and new coaching addition Jonas Bjorkman to the point where it needs to be a Novak Djokovic at his best that is able to stop him.

The draw to be made on Friday may yet throw up some tricky surprises for Murray but when he's playing this good on grass, he takes a lot of stopping. From winning Olympic Gold in 2012 to that Wimbledon triumph, he won 17 matches on grass in a row. For him to say he's playing better now than he was then is sure to worry the other players, but also delight Murray fans.

He also looks hungry for a slam and I get the impression he'd be very, very disappointed if he didn't lift a Grand Slam trophy in 2015 after a 2014 in which he almost felt his way back into top level tennis after significant back surgery. Now he is free of any problems with the back, he's more confident in his own ability again and is producing a wonderful array of shots. Dare I say, his notoriously weak second serve even looks good right now?

Djokovic remains the danger but as Greg Rusedski pointed out recently in an interview with the Daily Mail, he has lost six of his last nine Grand Slam Finals, which shows there is a mental weakness there. The Serb also doesn't react well to a partisan crowd, which it clearly would be against him at Wimbledon for any encounter against Murray, just like it was in 2013. Djokovic didn't play badly that day but to an extent he was always fighting against a rowdy crowd desperate for a Murray win, which did affect his game at big moments. 

Murray can ensure that happens again with an aggressive style which I'd like to see him come out with in Round One in order to send a message to everyone else in the locker room that he's in peak form.

It feels rather strange feeling so confident about Murray going into a Grand Slam but his relaxed nature and positive results this year have ensured that I do feel good about his chances. No doubt I'll get more nervous as the rounds progress, but for now it could be time for more Murray mania come Sunday July 12th on men's finals day.


Wednesday 17 June 2015

Mark Warburton is a risk- but it's one Rangers had to take

Life is full of risks and hiring someone for a new job in your company is one of the biggest. When making the decision, you've got to be entirely sure you have the right person for the role.

Sometimes the right person might not be the most qualified or tick every box but they are a gamble worth taking at that time because it will pay off long-term. That's exactly how I feel about the appointment of Mark Warburton at Rangers. He might not have managed or played in Scottish football before, but the time is right for the club to have a fresh start with someone who's going to bring a new way of thinking and a lot of ideas to all aspects at Ibrox.

To put it frankly, 'the journey' over the last three years as Rangers have made their way back up the divisions of Scottish football has been a disaster. The first two league titles might have been won with relative ease, but the football was uninspiring as Rangers suffered embarrassing defeats and draws on a semi-regular basis against part-timers. The squad was also full of players who didn't seem interested for the most part and were only there for a big pay day, leaving fans frustrated when they didn't come anywhere near to earning those wages.

Ally McCoist as a manager simply wasn't good enough either and had no concept of wanting to implement his own style on the team and showed too much respect to teams that Rangers should have been winning comfortably against. In season 2014/15 in the Championship everything came to a head at Rangers as on the park McCoist was completely found out in the games against Hearts and Hibs, as Rangers fell further and further behind in the league. His assistant Kenny McDowall who took over for a spell clearly didn't want to be there before Stuart McCall came to the rescue in March and at least got the club to the play-off final.

McCall must be thanked for his efforts with a squad with severe limitations and desire and his comments upon wishing Warburton and his assistant Davie Weir all the best in their roles showed the class of the man, who will always be welcome at Ibrox.

However, the feeling among the fans was that Rangers heading into the 2015/16 season needed to start completely fresh. A new board was in place and with so many players out of contract, the chance was there for a management team to implement a squad of their own. That's why despite the credentials of Derek McInnes and Stuart McCall, they still didn't strike me as managers capable of completely overhauling the club's philosophy. 

Arguably, either of them would have won promotion and whilst that is clearly Rangers main priority, for me they need more than right now. They need someone who is going to start buying players with an aim that they will significantly improve the squad and be a potential asset to sell on for profit in the future. They need someone who will implement an attacking style so that fans can enjoy coming to watch 90 minutes at Ibrox. They need someone who understands youth players do deserve a chance. And they need someone who isn't afraid to ruffle a few feathers.

Mark Warburton ticks all those boxes for me. The main reason why he's seen by some as a risk is clearly his lack of experience at the top level, even though he is 52. He didn't have much of a playing career, with his highlight coming at Enfield in 1982 when he won the FA Trophy, although he did experience running up the sand dunes under Rangers legend Jock Wallace, whilst the fearsome Scot was managing Leicester.

Add in his only managerial job to date so far has been at Brentford and you can understand why some people are telling me he is the wrong option for Rangers. Dismissing him as only having managed Brentford is looking at Warburton way too simplistically.

His first coaching role came with Watford's academy way back in 2006 where he was given the responsibility for managing the academy teams from the Under 9s to the Under 16s. In his coaching role he brought the skills and mindset he had learnt travelling round Europe and visiting clubs such as Barcelona, Ajax and Valencia, after leaving his job as a city trader.

A reshuffle at Watford saw Warburton moved to the role of assistant academy manager helping with the U17s to U19s teams enabling players to be ready for first team football. A reported fallout in 2010 saw him leave the club and it was around that time he was instrumental in setting up Uefa's Next Gen series, a U19 club competition in conjunction with the Champions League. 

Warburton's commitment to developing youth players and giving them every opportunity to make it is one of his most impressive qualities and at his press conference on Monday, it was refreshing to her him say the academy should be the heartbeat of the club. Rangers can ill afford to keep paying big wages to players over 30 and who aren't good enough anymore. Auchenhowie needs to be utilised much more as well as bringing in youngsters who can be sold on in the future which makes perfect sense for where Rangers are currently and this clearly seems to be Warburton's ideology.

It is record at Brentford that most impresses me though, especially when you add in the fact he also spent a spell as sporting director at the club. Now I wouldn't have Warburton in charge of every footballing aspect at Rangers but it's heartening to know the club has a manager in charge who knows about scouting, finances, contracts and agents.

When he made the move to the dugout at Brentford in late 2013 he took to it like a duck to water. Having stamped his authority by hiring Weir as his assistant he promptly became the first manager in the club's history to win his first six games in charge. That form continued throughout the second half of the 2013/14 season with Warburton receiving three Manager of the Month nominations. Promotion was secured with three games to spare with Warburton's side finishing with an impressive 94 points.

If people thought Brentford were going to come straight back down then they were mistaken as Warburton set about challenging for the Championship, playing a brand of attacking football. He doesn't bring everyone back at corners and he's only interested in his team scoring more than the opposition. What a change that will be in the Ibrox dugout.

To lead a club like Brentford, who's highest attendance last season was 12,225 into the play-offs was a terrific achievement finishing ahead of big teams like Leeds, Wolves and Derby. Some say this is nothing compared to the task he has at Rangers.

They are correct up to a point. Rangers are clearly a much bigger club than Brentford and he'll need to deliver results every week. But his success down south tells me he is a winner and that is exactly the sort of character that rubs off in dressing rooms. 

I'm glad a club legend like Weir is alongside to guide him but Warburton will be his own man. He's ambitious and very driven to succeed, which comes from his city background. He won't be clowning around on the training ground or taking part in karaoke sessions like McCoist.

Warburton is going to bring back proper standards to the club whilst sending out a team to play attacking football. That alone sums up why I believe like many other fans that the new Rangers board have pulled off a very clever move.

Tuesday 9 June 2015

Stan's the Man: Wawrinka's now part of the tennis elite

After the shock of seeing Rafa Nadal dismantled in straight sets in the quarter finals, those watching the French Open men's final on Sunday witnessed another stunning upset.

Switzerland's Stan Wawrinka beat World Number One Novak Djokovic (the man who dismantled Nadal in the quarters) in an incredible display in four sets of tennis to win his second grand slam title, following his win at the Australian Open last year.

Due to Nadal suffering from injury in that final, particularly during the second set when he looked set to retire, Wawrinka never got proper credit for his first slam win. That was harsh on the Swiss star, who had to cope with Nadal's situation and regroup after losing the third set.

Sunday's win though truly showed Wawrinka at his blistering best as he beat a man who had only lost twice this year and seemed finally destined to win the French Open and complete the career grand slam.

An even first set between the pair was lost when Wawrinka served a poor game at 3-3 but he soon hit Djokovic with a barrage of winners that even the greatest returner of all time couldn't find an answer to. His one handed backhand is arguably the most aggressive and potent shot in tennis and it was lethal on Sunday. Although it took him until his fifth break point to seal the second set, he was on top throughout as he electrified the crowd with winners on the forehand side as well as his trusted backhand.

Some utterly outrageous winners followed during the third set, including one which saw him hit a winner round the net post which delighted the Parisian crowd. Djokovic isn't one of the finest players ever to pick up a racquet for nothing and he fought back terrifically well at the start of the fourth set going into a 3-0 lead, as Wawrinka started to make some regular errors for the first time.

Anyone thinking Wawrinka was going to crack were then put in their place. A tremendous mix of defence and attack ensured he levelled up at 3-3. It was Djokovic's turn though for some brilliance as an incredible diving volley put him ahead before he suddenly got three break points on his opponents serve. Wawrinka's game came roaring back though and following some more terrific blows between the pair, it was Wawrinka who seized the opportunity and somewhat appropriately win the match with a blistering backhand.

His win propels him into the top four in the world rankings and he should now be considered as a huge threat in every grand slam. In an era where Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have won 39 slams between them since 2003, Wawrinka is the only multiple slam champion other than Andy Murray in that period.

He dominated Federer and Djokovic in the French Open and he's also beaten Nadal and Murray in grand slams too. What he now needs to find in the slams to stay in the elite is consistency. Last year he lost in the first round of the French, then this year he wins it. A phenomenal turnaround, but also something that would be very unlikely to happen in Djokovic's, Nadal's or even Murray's world.

There is no doubting though that Wawrinka has massively improved since hiring former world number two Magnus Norman as his coach in 2013. He has made him believe he can beat the best and has led him to two slams as well as a semi final in Melbourne this year and at the US Open in 2013. He has turned him into an even more aggressive player, as the 59 winners on Sunday prove.

He might already be 30, but Wawrinka is playing like someone ten years younger right now. That fearless attitude poses a huge threat to everyone else in the men's game and whilst grass isn't Wawrinka's best surface, he can still be a major threat at Wimbledon.

Wawrinka has now moved out of Federer's shadow and is now his country's current tennis superstar. For that alone, he deserves massive credit.