As Andy Murray prepares for the first grand slam of the season, the 2014 Australian Open which begins at midnight tonight, the man from Dunblane stands at a crossroads.
That may sound like a peculiar thing to say considering Murray became the first British man to win Wimbledon in 77 years last July and he still sits at number four in the world rankings. However, Murray has only just come back after an operation which he hopes will finally cure his pains in his lower back which caused him to miss the rest of last season after helping Britain beat Croatia in the Davis Cup in September.
Due to that lengthy lay off Murray goes into Melbourne horribly short of match fitness and practice. He has only played in three exhibition matches since Boxing Day and only two competitive singles matches proper. In facing 40 degree Australian heat and the potential of five set matches against Federer, Nadal and Djokovic in succession if he is to win the Australian Open for the first time, the odds look stacked against Murray.
The short answer would be to say Murray can't win the Australian Open and should just write it off. He could perhaps get through a few rounds and then lose to perhaps John Isner, the giant American in Round 4. I don't buy this. Murray won't be going into this tournament aiming to lose. He is simply too good mentally nowadays to think like that.
He's hardly favourite considering his lack of matches since the US Open in September, but you cannot rule him out. He is well and truly one of the players in the draw that most other players fear after his exploits of two Grand Slams and Olympic Gold over the last 18 months.
And although the latter stages might be filling Murray with dread, the early rounds on paper do seem to be relatively kind to him. He won't be taking anything for granted considering his lack of match sharpness, but he cannot complain at drawing Go Soeda in round one, who is ranked 112 in the world and has never been beyond the second round of a grand slam. Then comes a qualifier in round two and Feliciano Lopez in theory awaits in round three.
Lopez can be a tricky customer but Murray has won all seven meetings with him and assuming he gets through to meet him, he would be starting to get more confident in his game.
It's then really a case of how Murray's body and back in particular can cope with the heat. But this is a tournament he loves. He's reached the final three times in the last four years as well as narrowly losing to Novak Djokovic in the semi finals in 2012. He's determined to add this to his Grand Slam collection and despite winning Wimbledon last summer knows all too well that the British public still expect him to deliver down under.
The other big bonus for Murray is that he will have coach Ivan Lendl in his corner for the tournament. Murray isn't suddenly a bad player when Lendl isn't there, but there is no doubting that he is a far better player when Lendl is looking on pensively in the Wimbledon's champions box. Ever since Murray hired him just before the Australian Open of 2012, his career has went on an upward trajectory thanks to Lendl's superb tactics and his ability to make Murray believe.
There is an intriguing sub-plot to Lendl's coaching relationship with Murray as Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have hired fellow 1980s legends to coach them in terms of Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker respectively. If Murray was to meet one of them or indeed both, Lendl would be very keen to show them who's boss in terms of coaching the best players of this era.
Push come to shove, I'd be very surprised if Andy Murray goes onto win the Australian Open this year. Stranger things have happened though. Like a British man winning Wimbledon after a 77 year absence.
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