Sunday 22 June 2014

Can Andy Murray win Wimbledon again?

When Andy Murray steps on to Centre Court at Wimbledon tomorrow around 1pm, he will do so safe in the knowledge that he is the defending champion. That monkey is off his back.

It has been a whirlwind 12 months for the man from Dunblane since that memorable Sunday afternoon in July last year when he beat Novak Djokovic to become Britain's first men's singles champion at SW19 for 77 years.

Since then there have been mixed results, major back surgery and now the appointment of a new coach; Amelie Mauresmo after the split from the man who helped him win that title last year, Ivan Lendl.

Murray had a fine run to the semi final in the French Open and a surprise defeat to Radek Stepanek at Queens can surely be put down to that stellar effort. However, the defending champion is sure to face an extremely tough test from the likes of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and perhaps surprise packages such as Queens winner Grigor Dimitrov and big serving Canadian Milos Raonic.

Here is Murray's potential route to a second successive Wimbledon title:

Round One:  David Goffin (Belgium)
The Wimbledon champion with the backing of a Centre Crowd against a player ranked 104 in the world sounds like an easy start for Murray.

But Goffin is a dangerous player and proved that two years ago at the French Open and Wimbledon. Gaining entry to Roland Garros as a lucky loser, Goffin made the fourth round beating Stepanek, Arnaud Clement and Lukasz Kubot before taking a set off Roger Federer in his last 16 loss. And at Wimbledon he managed to beat Bernard Tomic who had reached the quarter finals in 2011 in the first round before falling to Mardy Fish in round three.

The resulting two years haven't been as kind to Goffin though he has suffered with injury this year. However, he is a dangerous player as he has proven against Federer in the past.

Prediction: Murray in Four.

Second Round:  Pablo Andujar (Spain)
Next up for Murray would be a tie against the World Number 79, presuming Andujar gets past the World Number 91, Blaz Rola from Slovenia in Round One.

This would actually be an easier tie for Murray than his first round match. Andjuar is much more suited to playing on clay and in four appearances at Wimbledon he has never been past the first round, so it would be new territory for him.

Murray's grass court ground strokes would prove far too strong for someone who has been ranked as high as 33 in the world.

Prediction: Murray in three.

Round Three:  Roberto Bautista Agut (Spain)
Another Spanish test would lie in wait for Murray in the last 32 and it would be a significantly greater test than Andujar in the round previously.

Bautista Agut, who is ranked at 28th in the World has enjoyed a successful 2014 and is coming into Wimbledon having won the grass court tournament in Rosmalen, Netherlands today by beating Benjamin Becker in the final.

He has proven he can defeat the best, with a five set win over Juan Martin Del Potro in this years Australian Open second round, before he lost to Dimitrov in four sets in round four. He also beat Tomas Berdych in the Indian Wells Masters in March whilst he had a great run to the semi finals in Madrid in May beating Tommy Robredo and Fernando Verdasco along the way.

Murray would go into this match as clear favourite but a player full of confidence cannot be under estimated especially as he seems to be vastly improving on grass.

Prediction: Murray in four

Fourth Round: Fabio Fognini (Italy)
Fognini has already beaten Andy Murray this year, winning soundly on the clay surface in Rome against him in the Davis Cup in April.

However, Murray has to start this last 16 match as favourite against the World Number 15. Fognini is certainly a player who can be described as a clay court expert having won three titles on the surface since July last year and he also reached the French Open quarter finals in 2011.

But against a man who has only lost one match on grass since Wimbledon 2012, Fognini would be outclassed. Murray would welcome this opponent at the start of the second week and would relish the chance to avenge that Davis Cup defeat.

Prediction: Murray in Three

Quarter Final: Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria)
A bold prediction here but I believe that last Sunday's Queens winner will be lying in wait for Murray in the last eight. He might never have been beyond the second round at Wimbledon, but he is brimming with confidence and is finally living up to the hype that has surrounded him for the last few years.

For all his 'poster boy' image thanks to his good looks and relationship with Maria Sharapova, there can be no doubting the Bulgarian can play. At Queens last week he performed superbly, defeating Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka in the semi final before holding his nerve in the best of three tie breaks in the final against Feliciano Lopez to take the title.

He would likely have to beat David Ferrer to reach this stage and the man known as 'The Wall' would be a formidable object for the World Number 13, but Dimitrov simply has to deliver in a major tournament sooner rather than later and with a win at Queens, he seems ready to do so.

He has beaten Murray this year already in a thrilling semi final in Acapulco but with Murray's experience at this stage of Grand Slams, he has to be favourite in a best of five set match. Dimitrov isn't quite ready to come out and beat the Wimbledon champion on his home turf.

Prediction: Murray in four

Semi Final: Novak Djokovic (Serbia)
The route to glory for Murray should see him come up against the man he dismantled in last years final. Djokovic will be looking to avenge that defeat last year and win back a crown he collected in 2011.

Matches between Djokovic and Murray are always full of astoundingly long rallies, brilliant shot-making and constant breaks of serve. Both are 27 years of age and whilst Djokovic progressed quicker, Murray did get the better of him in the 2012 US Open final along with last years Wimbledon although the man from Serbia did win the 2013 Australian Open between the pair.

It would be a massive test for Murray and his new coach Mauresmo but you have to believe that Murray would be inspired by the memories of last year, particularly with a sell out crowd believing he can win the tournament again. For my mind, Murray is the greatest grass court player in the world and Djokovic has been struggling with a wrist injury lately, though he insists it won't bother him at SW19.

Prediction: Murray in five

Final: Rafael Nadal (Spain)
Nadal would be the ultimate test for Murray in the final and I believe he would just fall short against a man that has defeated him 15 times out of their 20 meetings.

The Spaniard's aggressive style and brutal forehand are regularly too much for Murray on any surface as was comprehensively demonstrated by Nadal in a straight set win in the French Open semi finals earlier this month.

What's more, Nadal will be eager to make up for lost time at Wimbledon having suffered shock defeats the last two times he has played in the tournament. Last year he was bundled out by unheralded Belgian Steve Darcis in the first round whilst in 2012, he was incredibly beaten by Pole Lukas Rosol  over five sets in the second round when he was the overwhelming favourite for the tournament.

Coupled with the fact that he will want to restore national pride in Spanish sport after the footballers abysmal performance in the World Cup, Nadal will come out all guns blazing. Full of confidence after winning Roland Garros despite a shock defeat to Dustin Brown in Halle last week, the World Number one looks primed for a first Wimbledon title in four years.

Murray would certainly be no pushover for Nadal and you couldn't rule him out of winning back to back Wimbledon titles. But Nadal has won their three previous meetings at Wimbledon and it is worth noting that Murray's greatest career achievements have came when the 14 time Grand Slam champion has been out of the picture.

Prediction: Nadal in four.

The 2014 Wimbledon Championships are upon us from tomorrow and it is fantastic Andy Murray goes into them with the biggest monkey of them all off his back.

Ultimately though, I think he'll fall just short in his quest to keep a grip on the Wimbledon trophy.



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